Figure 1: Streaming Media Players - Unique User Trends
Source: Nielsen//NetRatings

Figure 2: Streaming Media Player Time per Person Trends
Source: Nielsen//NetRatings

Figure 3: PC Time Tracks Broadband Growth
Source: Nielsen//NetRatings

Figure 4: Web Connection Speed Trends - Home Users (US)
Source: Nielsen//NetRatings

Figure 5: Broadband Adoption Growth Trend - Home Users (US)
Extrapolated from Nielsen//NetRatings data

Figure 6: Web Connection Speed Trends - Work Users (US)
Source: Nielsen//NetRatings

The CNET article cited above is two years old! This is pretty misleading as Apple actually has passed the billion downloads mark. CNET itself is a questionable source; this only compounds any misinformation they may propagate. Unfortunately it also calls into question your own reports. I look forward to seeing this corrected.

Best regards

> Apple's iTunes sales hit 50 million

This article is actually from March 15, 2004. It's two years old. Of more interest would be the fact that iTunes sales have crossed 1 billion on Feb 23, 2006.

Hmmm, hey, I don't do charts so I may not be on top of this but it seems to me that Apple QuickTime and Real are in near stasis while Apple iTunes and WMP are accelerating at about the same rate, according to the chart at the very top, no? Interestingly, if I am reading the chart correctly, Apple's iTunes is increasing at a slightly faster rate than WM, although it would take decades, at this rate, for Apple's iTunes to catch WM.

What does this news mean? It means that MS is not doing a real bad job at representing its illegal predatory monopoly initiatives. *S*

Hi all,

I removed the old CNET story, misread the date, sorry. I based the story on the Netratings data, CNET was just for color. Thanks for your comments.

- Andy

Vanax,

Your comment about growth rates of Microsoft versus Apple is a good one. Microsoft however appears to be more on a linear growth "curve" no doubt due to OS sales. Apple's curve appears to be nonlinear however (despite having only three data points), and appears to be accelerating so I suspect it will not take decades but rather less time to approach or pass Microsoft in unique users.

I was struck by how long users used (mainly listened to I suspect) iTunes versus the other players, nearly 2.4 times as long as RealPlayer and Microsoft's player, with only RealPlayer showing any growth.

- Andy

I don't really understand the distinction between QuickTime and iTunes since iTunes uses QuickTime to actually play the media. QuickTimes _is_ the underlying technology of iTunes. There is nothing, including podcasts, that iTunes can play that QuickTime cannot play without iTunes. I think we are confusing distribution channels with what is actually playing the media.

Andy, on closer view of the top graph, it looks like Apple's iTunes is curving up at a geometric rate while WM has a straight angle. The two seem to meet in two or three years, not decades as I mistakenly said before. Not far away at all. This bodes well for Apple Corp's iTunes.

Right now Apple iTunes is at 40 while WM is only at 70 which is not a huge lead I mean, considering the huge install base for WM. If I were MS, I might want to conclude that my WM is in some kind of trouble vis-a-vis iTunes, and would once again rally the troops yet again, you know, create some sort of anxiety in them to do better, produce more, get better. Just how many times MS can do this and not get a yawn back is a question it needs to ask itself.

I suspect that MS is at it's EOL for any meaningful progress. *S*

Vanax,

Yes, I think you are right, iTunes is gaining on WM. However as of January 2006 iTunes had 18.5 million unique users compared to Microsoft's 71.1 million users (not 40/70). The gap is closing as you can see from the extrapolated graph, but I'll need more data points to make a longer term prediction. David makes a good point, and there is probably some overlap between the iTunes and QuickTime numbers so I'm not sure we can just add these up for Apple. If you want I can revisit this in a future report.

Microsoft did announce the UMPC line (Ultra-Mobile PC) at CeBIT earlier in March 2006:

http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/features/2006/mar06/03-09Mobile.mspx

But it appears to be much larger than an iPod.

- Andy

It's worth pointing out that iTunes has QuickTime embedded in it, and the combined total of both is 31385. So it appears that QuickTime compatible media is already more popular than RealPlayer media (28,687).

iTunes is largely an application around the QuickTime framework. Separating it out is like measuring the number of people who use .Net versus the number of people who use Windows.

How can any research omit the incredible success Flash has had in the streaming media marketplace.

I agree with Rob. This is an odd article. The author seems to be unaware of Flash video which with YouTube and Google has to be gaining rapidly. I certainly see more Flash now than I do Real. I haven't seen anyone new using Real in quite a while.

Also, anyone using iTunes is also using Quicktime. So that statistic is odd as well. Unless you mean Quicktime Player vs. iTunes your distinction doesn't make much sense. Anything that plays in one will play in the other. So if the reason for this report is to help websites determine what type of media to support, they are one in the same.

Guys,

Note that the data provided to me by Nielsen//NetRatings is primarily aimed at audio/video. I've queried my contact there to see what kind of data they have for Flash. Again the takeaway is that iTunes usage is growing fast and is catching up to Microsoft's player.

Keep those cards and letters coming.

- Andy

Welcome Slashdotters,

http://apple.slashdot.org/apple/06/03/17/081216.shtml

Hi all,

I added a more recent story from Apple with the latest data, 1 billion songs and 15 million videos sold. The lucky billionth song buyer/winner hails from West Bloomfield, Michigan.

- Andy

Rob and James,

I have an answer for you from Nielsen//NetRatings on the Flash Player and why it was not included in their Internet Applications report:

"The difference between a Flash Player and a Media Player is that a Flash Player is not an Internet Application - and does not require parallel use of the Internet while executing the Flash application."

- Andy

A couple of items:

* Yes, the Quicktime and iTunes figures should be combined; while there are some minor distinctions between the platforms (Quicktime Player standalone won't play .m4a files and show graphics or allow chapter navigation), essentially, they are One User Group.

* This does need some Editorial and Perspective added: If QT/iTunes is the format being used for longer Viewing durations, then, it is the deFacto "winner" in the marketplace Today. This is not an "install base/player penetration" issue, it is an Audience Use issue. Windows Media Player has a large install base; it's on every business computer out there; but, it's not "used" for video viewing in those locations (well, it isn't supposed to be). And, yes, not include "Flash on a "Usage" basis does not provide an accurate picture of what's going on in the market.

Hi all,

I asked NetRatings about the usage versus storage issue in their player survey, as well as combining QT with IT, here is their response:

In response to the comments above, our measurement sciences team said: "We're reporting whether the QT application or the ITunes application or the WMP application or the RP application was used, regardless of the format of the media file that was playing."

The reason QuickTime and iTunes show separate traffic is that they are two different executables.

- Andy

I now see by April 70% of all Internet home users will be BB. Any idea when that will be 80%? 90%? 95%? 100%?

Giff,

Yes, we'll break 70% around April 2006 for active Internet users in the U.S. If the experience in other countries (Canada, Korea) is any indication broadband penetration growth tends to slow after around 70%, so approaching 80/90% penetration will take longer than the current growth rate would predict. I'm don't think we'll see 100% for some time, since there are still people who can't afford it, refuse to upgrade, or don't go online at all.

- Andy

A few points seems to be constantly missed concerning broadband.

The main one being it is not available outside of major metro areas, especially if it requires expensive equipment. That seems to be an idea that the Web (not internet) absolutely fail to understand. Rural areas don't happen to always have satellite dishes in their yard that are tuned to internet services, and those that do fight with them, especially Earthlink, constantly to maintain decent service.

Another is that broadband is a convenience, not (yet) a necessity. When it becomes the latter the thirty percent that keep getting quoted as not having such will be considered unneeded customers.

Hi Andy,

The numbers look great. Is there a way to obtain the source data for this article? If not, what is the market share that is covered by the 4 applications you have mentioned here relatively to other application you didn't (for example WinAmp)?

Jonathan,

Hi, the numbers are in Table 1 and the second figure for streaming media player statistics. The numbers are derived from Nielsen//NetRatings data.

- Andy

Does anybody have any actual connection type data for 2006?

Hmmm...

I wonder how they (Nielsen/NetRatings) are coming up with their numbers? Is this a focus group or based upon captured metrics?

Customer Experience Improvement Program (CEIP) data is optional under WMP and most people opt-out so getting any real numbers from the WMP data is going to be difficult. Usually you normalize your CEIP numbers against your downloads to identify the number of users using XYZ feature but I'm not sure how you'd do tah here given that over 350 million PCs already have MediaPlayer installed.

Is CEIP optional under iTunes? If not that could easily skew things...

What's the ratio of Mac vs. Windows users in these numbers? Or video vs. audio for that matter? None of this is clear. Is it just tracking streamed content? I use WMP to playback my ripped CDs for about 4 - 5 hours a day. I'm not being tracked for CEIP and about the only thing I stream through it is the occasional video off the web which would add up to maybe 10 minutes a day.

The other thing is that the first graph shows that the whole markets going up (more people are using the computers for media) and about 49% of *new users* are choosing WMP for their player and about 51% are choosing iTunes. It may be a two horse race but I'm not sure how you'd predict that iTunes will overtake WMP anytime soon. If anything it looks like it took iTunes about a year before they started growing at the same rate as WMP.

And finally... The other thing to note is that Apple has sold over 40 million iPods now. That makes me think that 80% - 90% or more of the iTunes users reported above are also iPod owners. I doubt anyone would argue that iPod sales are on track to overtake PC sales anytime soon...

- Steve

This web site has up-to-date reports on Windows Media Player, Apple QuickTime and a bunch of other plugins. It also has current information on broadband versus dial-up usage:
http://www.statowl.com